When it comes to daily fantasy sports (DFS), and basketball in particular, there’s a lot of data out there that can help you make lineup decisions. One source of helpful data is numberFire, an analytical sports resource site that features DFS projections as part of its stock of premium content.
The data at numberFire can be used in any number of ways. Can’t decide between James Harden and Russell Westbrook? Use the projections to see who the stats say is likely to have a better day. Just want to know which games to target for the most expected fantasy production? There’s a chart for that showing how each game on a given slate rates on a number of different metrics. Want to weight some of your favorite players and have a computer spit out some optimized lineups? Use the lineup generator.
The cost of premium content at numberFire depends on what level of membership you use, but we’re going to provide a sampling for free right here on PokerNews Sports. Each day this recurring article runs, we’ll go over three of numberFire’s top 10 value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel using the premium projections. We’ll take a look at why these players could represent value and show you what numberFire expects out of them statistically.
All stats are projected totals at the time of writing.
|PG Patty Mills (SAS@BKN)||$3,600||21.48||10.1||1.8||3.6||0.9||0||1.3|
Tony Parker is struggling through a foot injury at the moment, leaving the door open for backup guards like Mills to grab increased playing time. Mills isn’t the setup man Parker is, but he’s a better shooter and quite capable of racking up 20 points if he can hold off Dejounte Murray for playing time. A tasty matchup with the Nets and their 28th-ranked defense awaits, and with Parker currently listed as out, Mills could be in for a big day. He picked up 24.1 FD points against the Cavs in the Spurs’ last outing with Parker out.
|SF Paul George (IND@NYK)||$7,000||35.3||21.9||6.1||3.4||1.8||0.3||3|
Typically, the value plays are populated by under-the-radar guys, but George makes an appearance as a buy-low candidate. George has been in a bit of a slump lately, topping 25 points just twice since the calendar turned to 2017. His price has slid along with that slump, down to just $7,000 as Myles Turner and Jeff Teague have taken on more usage in the offense. George still possesses 50-point upside though, and this game has the second-highest total on the slate (218), so plenty of fantasy production should come from somewhere.
|PF Jon Leuer (DETvSAC)||$4,500||27.41||11.4||6.5||1.6||0.5||0.5||0.9|
After missing about two weeks with a knee bruise, Leuer returned against Washington and showed no ill effects, posting 10-5-2 in his usual allotment of 25 minutes. Leuer is exactly the type of player Stan Van Gundy loves, so expect to him to get Leuer and his 3-point shooting on the court for plenty more against the Kings and their 26th-ranked defense. DeMarcus Cousins is currently playing PF for the Kings, and while he’s quite capable defensively, expect him to slack off on that end of the court with the load he now has to carry on offense with secondary scorer Rudy Gay out for the year. Plus, he isn’t used to chasing shooters like Leuer around the court.
|C Clint Capela (HOU@MIL)||$4,000||22.8||10.7||7.4||0.8||0.4||1.7||1.1|
Capela has been a very nice surprise this year for Houston, showing he’s more than ready to take on the starting role in Dwight Howard’s absence. He’s working his way back from injury and has been coming off the bench for a bit, but he’s already been announced as the starter tonight. Capela showed off his monster upside when he posted 43 DK points in just 21 minutes against the Warriors on Friday. While he likely won’t go past 25 minutes in this game, that could easily still be enough time to reach value at this piddling price of $4,000 against a Bucks frontcourt that gives big minutes to Greg Monroe and his disinterested defense at C.
|SG Sean Kilpatrick (BKNvSAS)||$4,300||27.63||14.1||4.1||2.7||0.8||0.1||2.3|
Upside in the NBA often comes in the form of players who can rack up valuable steals and blocks, but Kilpatrick is the opposite, simply a volume shooting monster. As long as he is on the court, he is going to chuck — he owns a USG% around 25 the past couple of years. He’ll certainly have his hands full whether he’s facing the pesky defense of Patty Mills or Danny Green, but Kilpatrick is capable of hitting the 30 DK point mark quite easily just based on the amount of shots he’ll likely be taking. Caris Levert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are threats to grab some of his playing time, so it all depends on how everyone is performing their first few stints on the court.
|PG Matthew Dellavedova (MILvHOU)||$3,500||26.86||7.4||2.3||5.3||0.9||0.1||1.7|
Malcolm Brogdon had taken over Dellavedova’s job and looked good in the process, with his superior shooting (43 percent on 3s to Dellavedova’s 39) and scoring chops (13.3 points per 36 to Dellavedova’s 10) helping take attention away from Giannis Antetokounmpo and giving the Bucks a little more flow. However, Dellavedova was given his job back for the moment in the Bucks’ last game as Jason Kidd continues to tinker with the lineup. The Aussies responded with a nice 28.5 DraftKings points, although the Bucks did lose quite handily. Keep an eye on the wire to see if Dellavedova remains in a starting role. If he does, he should reach value without much trouble.
Want to see all of today’s top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel? Try numberFire’s premium tools for free!
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