When it comes to daily fantasy sports (DFS), and basketball in particular, there’s a lot of data out there that can help you make lineup decisions. One source of helpful data is numberFire, an analytical sports resource site that features DFS projections as part of its stock of premium content.
The data at numberFire can be used in any number of ways. Can’t decide between James Harden and Russell Westbrook? Use the projections to see who the stats say is likely to have a better day. Just want to know which games to target for the most expected fantasy production? There’s a chart for that showing how each game on a given slate rates on a number of different metrics. Want to weight some of your favorite players and have a computer spit out some optimized lineups? Use the lineup generator.
The cost of premium content at numberFire depends on what level of membership you use, but we’re going to provide a sampling for free right here on PokerNews Sports. Each day this recurring article runs, we’ll go over three of numberFire’s top 10 value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel using the premium projections. We’ll take a look at why these players could represent value and show you what numberFire expects out of them statistically.
All stats are projected totals at the time of writing.
|SG Sean Kilpatrick (BKNvsMIA)||$4,200||28||15||4.2||2.7||0.8||0.1||2.7|
Kilpatrick came through for us on Monday with a big game — 17-10-1 — and his projections are juiced up even more with a very solid 28 minutes expected. Yet, his price remains barely above the rock bottom on FanDuel at $4,200. Kilpatrick will continue to chuck with wild abandon, as he did especially when the Nets got down big. Expect at least another 15 or so shots if he plays this projected chunk of minutes, and he’d almost certainly make value easily if that’s the case even in a slower-paced game against Miami.
|C John Henson (MILvsPHI)||$3,600||19.53||7.1||5.6||1||0.5||1.4||1.1|
Coach Jason Kidd seems to be turning to the hot hand for the majority of the minutes at C each night, so Henson is a player with a very volatile projection. He could easily go for 30 or 35 FanDuel points if he garners 25 minutes or so, but if he only plays around 15, he might be capped at 23 or so. Even that would deliver value though. Henson’s ability to rack up blocks and steals is the key, and Philly is a much easier matchup when Joel Embiid sits, as he will tonight. Embiid locks things up at the rim, and with him out of the way, Henson should have an easier time scoring.
|PF Kevin Love (CLEvsSAC)||$7,700||32.46||20.6||11.1||2.1||0.9||0.4||2.2|
Love seemingly showed no ill effects from fighting a back injury, racking up 47.2 FD points on 22-16-6 in the barnburner loss to the Pelicans. His price remains on the low side after the injury and a matchup with the Spurs dragged down his production, so take advantage before things adjust. Sacramento has a bad defense (26th) and a surprisingly poor rebounding rate (24th), so Love has a ceiling of a 20-20 game if this one doesn’t get out of hand.
|C Clint Capela (HOU@BOS)||$4,200||23.06||10.9||7.5||0.8||0.4||1.7||1.1|
We recommended Capela in Houston’s last game, and he still eked out value despite having one of his worst rebounding games of the season, pulling down just three boards. That shouldn’t be a problem against the poor-rebounding C’s — just two teams have a worse rebound rate. Furthermore, this one’s expected to be the highest-scoring game on the slate at 229. The pace and matchup make it a dream spot for Capela.
|PF Trevor Booker (BKNvsMIA)||$4,800||27.51||10.3||8.5||2.1||1.4||0.6||1.9|
Booker’s a rebounding monster averaging 13 and 12 per 36 minutes this year. He certainly doesn’t have the sexiest skill set, but his rebounding makes him a nice complement to Brook Lopez, one of the weaker Cs on the boards in the NBA. His price peaked around $6,000 a couple of weeks ago, but he’s down to a very affordable $4,800. The Nets will need all the rebounding help they can get against Hassan Whiteside.
|SG Gerald Henderson (PHI@MIL)||$3,100||25.03||9.9||2.8||1.7||0.6||0.3||0.9|
The youth movement in Philly takes up most of the minutes, but they’ve still been finding plenty of run for Henderson, who has seen 22+ minutes in six of the past eight games. His upside is around 30 DK points, and there should be a few extra shots available for the taking with Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor sitting and replaced by the low-volume Nerlens Noel.
Want to see all of today’s top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel? Try numberFire’s premium tools for free!
Be sure to complete your PokerNews experience by checking out an overview of our mobile and tablet apps here. Stay on top of the poker world from your phone with our mobile iOS and Android app, or fire up our iPad app on your tablet. You can also update your own chip counts from poker tournaments around the world with MyStack on both Android and iOS.