When it comes to daily fantasy sports (DFS), and basketball in particular, there’s a lot of data out there that can help you make lineup decisions. One source of helpful data is numberFire, an analytical sports resource site that features DFS projections as part of its stock of premium content.
The data at numberFire can be used in any number of ways. Can’t decide between James Harden and Russell Westbrook? Use the projections to see who the stats say is likely to have a better day. Just want to know which games to target for the most expected fantasy production? There’s a chart for that showing how each game on a given slate rates on a number of different metrics. Want to weight some of your favorite players and have a computer spit out some optimized lineups? Use the lineup generator.
The cost of premium content at numberFire depends on what level of membership you use, but we’re going to provide a sampling for free right here on PokerNews Sports. Each day this recurring article runs, we’ll go over three of numberFire’s top 10 value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel using the premium projections. We’ll take a look at why these players could represent value and show you what numberFire expects out of them statistically.
All stats are projected totals at the time of writing.
|SG Seth Curry (DALvsCLE)||$4,300||27.22||11.7||2.7||2.9||1.1||0.1||1.4|
Dallas is extremely thin in the backcourt right now with Deron Williams joining JJ Barea on the sidelines and emergency fill-in Pierre Jackson getting hurt and quickly waived. Curry has been needed to play as many minutes as he can stay on the court. His past three games have all been 34+ minutes, and he had his biggest game yet with 24-10-5 against the Spurs of all teams. The less-famous Curry brother can put half of that and he’d be about hitting value, so rolling him out tonight is an easy choice.
|PF Serge Ibaka (ORL@MIN)||$5,700||31.31||15.2||7.6||1||0.6||1.6||1.3|
Fellow frontcourt player Bismack Biyombo’s signing has been a complete disaster for the Magic, and his minutes have trended downward lately. Aaron Gordon is also questionable with an injury, and if he’s replaced with a real small forward, it should open up even more space for Ibaka to work with less threats to snag rebounds away from him. Ibaka’s just too cheap at the moment on FanDuel, particularly with Minnesota’s 24th-ranked defense on tap.
|PF Jon Leuer (DET@BOS)||$4,400||28.33||12.2||6.1||1.7||0.6||0.4||1.1|
Leuer’s mostly gotten back to doing good work for the Pistons since he returned to the lineup from injury. He posted 25 and 23.8 FD points in his first two games before disappearing against Miami in an ugly Pistons loss. He still got 24 minutes there though, indicating his role is on solid ground, and Boston presents a good chance for Leuer to get some of the rebounds that will help his cause. The C’s are fifth-worst in the league on the boards, so if Leuer can nail some treys and grab some boards, he’ll be in business at an affordable cost of $4,400.
|PF Channing Frye (CLE@DAL)||$3,400||30.11||14.4||6||1.3||0.4||0.4||1.2|
Frye is a must-own in basically any scenario where he’s playing significant minutes. The last time he stepped on the court for starter’s minutes, he racked up 39 DK points against the Suns. Kevin Love’s out tonight with back spasms so it’s Frye’s time to shine again. The type of looks LeBron James feeds him means Frye’s ceiling something like 25 points, which would get him to value without any additional stats racked up. The career 39 percent 3-point shooter is arguably today’s top play.
|PG Yogi Ferrell (DALvsCLE)||$3,500||27.51||10.2||2.6||4||0.9||0.2||2.1|
Ferrell drew a surprising start in his first day as a Dallas Maverick in a brutal matchup with the Spurs and responded 9-2-7 in 36 minutes along with a pair of steals for a solid 26.5 DK points. Coach Rick Carlisle typically distrusts young players but appears to simply have nowhere else to turn with all of the injuries, and Ferrell could do even better against the lackadaisical defense of Kyrie Irving tonight. He’s the sneaky play for Dallas.
|SG Tyler Johnson (MIAvsBKN)||$5,000||31.25||14.8||4.6||3.3||1.3||0.7||1.2|
An injury has put Johnson on the shelf for a couple of weeks, but he’s reportedly going to give it a go tonight in a premium matchup with the Nets, who play worse defense than everyone in the league but the Lakers and also lead the NBA in pace. Johnson was needed for big minutes before he went down hurt, especially with fellow bench standout Josh Richardson also injured. Many will avoid Johnson since he’s coming off the shelf in fear of re-injury, but since he hurt his shoulder, it shouldn’t be a major fear like it would be if he had an ankle or knee injury. Johnson’s a bargain at about $500 less than he was priced at before his injury if he plays his normal role.
Want to see all of today’s top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel? Try numberFire’s premium tools for free!
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